My new facebook page, devoted totally to the weather, was launched right before the approaching “blizzard”.
(The Weatherman Psychic – feel free to like us)
Excited by this new beginning, I posted my very first forecast and then subsequently suffered my very first “bust”, in fact it was the worst forecasting gaffe I’ve committed in 3 years as the 10-15 inch forecast tanked and a mere 2 inches fell in my backyard. Not that the forecast was a total bust, and it actually verified in all other locations including NYC where everyone else missed but to be a “psychic weatherman” and to be so off in your own backyard? Not good! What a way to launch my new page!!!
Well, this certainly got me to thinking. My mind traveleled back to my childhood. I was so connected to the elements back then. I could pick a date, close my eyes and “see” the weather for that day. I became so good at this that by time I was 8 years old people I did not even know would ask me what the weather was going to be. It became such a passion throughout high school that any time unusual or inclement weather hit I would feel compelled to go out doors to be a part of it. I went to college to be a meteorologist and earned my degree in that field. At SUNY Oneonta in the Earth Science lab we got the government maps and the upper classmen ran a forecasting contest. They saw how in to the weather I was as I spent every spare hour in the lab so as a sophmore they bended the rules and allowed me to compete in the contest reserved for Juniors and Seniors. I wound up coming in tied for second and came within a hair of winning the contest of about 30 participants. Needless to say I got my share of glares from the upperclassmen and women but there were a few who saw my “potential” and wanted to help me develop my skills. I learned the science of meteorology and found myself relying more and more on weather maps and less and less on feeling and the next semester I wound up finishing the contest somewhere in the middle of the pack. Very disappointing indeed.
At some point I realized that my forecasting prowess did not evolve from studying weather maps. I realized that going out into the elements and using my intuition is what made me “better than the weatherman” in the first place. Determined to trust my feelings first and foremost and to only use the science for guidance I went into the following year’s contest and by mid-semester I pulled out of the pack and won the contest easily.
So, upon reflecting on my blown forecast, I realized I was being way to dependent on the “Euro Model. The “GFS” etc. and not trusting my gut and I realized something inside of me was trying to tell me we would miss this one while New England gets hammered but I didn’t listen. I wanted the storm. I wanted to believe the forecast models and subsequently I wound up blowing the forecast. Now as I move forward as psychic first, meteorologist second I’m back on track with my forecasting and the storm that is currently baring down on us is verifying according to my intuition which went against the computer models, and those same models since changed to match what my intuition was telling me. Big lesson to me and to everyone. Always trust your gut.
